Developing hedging strategies for the unexpected

One of the major challenges to policy makers concerned with sustainable development is how to cope with surprises and discontinuities, whether favourable or adverse, and how to develop contingency plans or "hedging" strategies that take into account not just the probable trends, but also the unexpected. Recent examples of surprises include the discovery of the Antarctic "ozone hole", the catastrophic accidents at Chernobyl and Bhopal, the dramatic spread of the AIDS epidemic worldwide, or the scientific discoveries leading to the rapid development of biotechnology. Such surprises often produce a huge societal response and rapid shifts in science and technology priorities. None of these events are foreseeable, especially as to their timing relative to many other political or technological developments.

1. Proposed development strategies or technology options must be assessed not only with respect to their expected benefits, costs and risks under existing trends but also with respect to their sensitivity to unanticipated events, both favourable and unfavourable.

1. Strategic planning
2. Reducing security risks
3. Promoting self reliance
4. Planning for the unexpected
5. Managing change
6. Developing strategies

1. Managing financial liability

1. Managing foreign borrowing
2. Building institutional resilience

1. Using internet for strategic defence
2. Researching resilience of ecosystems

1. Unstrategic
2. Unforeseeable
3. Turbulence
4. Resilience