Instability of production of food and live animals

Fluctuations in food production

Nature

Annual fluctuations in production are a major feature of the food situation. Often they tend to offset one another to some extent at the regional or global level, but when there are simultaneous drops in production (or increases below the trend rate) in a large number of major countries and regions, the implications for the world food situation are serious. In assessing the longer-term trends in food production, it is therefore necessary to examine the annual fluctuations above and below this trend, and to attempt to determine whether there has been any cyclical pattern in their magnitude or frequency that has affected the longer-term trend itself.

Variations in seasonal rainfall, temperature, and other climatic factors are generally the principal causes of the fluctuations, although the isolation of their effects from those of the other factors involved is difficult and has been accomplished for only a few crops in some developed countries. Fluctuations in production lead to changes in prices, employment, incomes and demand which in turn influence the course of production, generally accentuating the fluctuations caused by the weather. Changes in price and other agricultural policies can cause production to vary sharply from the trend. Civil disturbance, hostilities, natural disasters unrelated to the weather, and pests and diseases (sometimes linked with weather) are other powerful contributors.

Background

The instability of food and live animal production emerged as a global concern in the mid-20th century, when fluctuations in harvests and livestock populations began disrupting international markets and food security. Recognition intensified during the 1970s food crises, prompting coordinated monitoring by organizations such as FAO. Subsequent decades saw increased attention to the vulnerability of supply chains, with research highlighting the impacts of climate variability, disease outbreaks, and economic shocks on production stability worldwide.

Incidence

Variable and unreliable national food production is particularly marked in certain developing countries, affected by such destabilizing factors as the drug trade, cash cropping and the economic effects of managing burgeoning foreign debt.

Claim

The instability of food and live animal production is a critical crisis threatening global food security and livelihoods. Fluctuating supplies lead to hunger, soaring prices, and economic turmoil, especially for vulnerable populations. Ignoring this issue risks widespread malnutrition, social unrest, and environmental degradation. Immediate, coordinated action is essential to stabilize production systems, protect communities, and ensure a sustainable future. This problem cannot be underestimated or postponed—our collective well-being depends on urgent solutions.

Counter-claim

The so-called "instability of production of food and live animals" is grossly exaggerated. Modern technology, global trade, and advanced logistics ensure that food shortages are rare and quickly resolved. Concerns about instability are overblown, distracting from real issues. The world has never been better equipped to handle fluctuations in production, making this topic a minor inconvenience rather than a significant problem. Worrying about it is simply unnecessary in today’s interconnected world.