Insecurity and vulnerability of non-nuclear weapon states

Nature

The proliferation and stockpiling of nuclear weapons by nuclear powers is a threat to the peace and security of those nations which do not possess nuclear weapons. Fear ranges from anxiety over possibilities of nuclear blackmail to dread of an exchange of missiles by any of the nuclear powers.

Background

The insecurity and vulnerability of non-nuclear weapon states emerged as a global concern during the Cold War, when the nuclear arms race highlighted stark disparities in security guarantees. The 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) brought international attention to the issue, as non-nuclear states voiced fears of coercion and marginalization. Subsequent regional crises and debates over nuclear sharing further underscored the persistent anxieties and evolving recognition of these states’ precarious security positions within the international system.

Incidence

Non-nuclear weapon states face persistent insecurity and vulnerability due to their lack of nuclear deterrence, leaving them exposed to coercion or threats from nuclear-armed powers. This imbalance undermines global security frameworks and fuels regional arms races, as non-nuclear states may seek alternative means of protection. The issue affects dozens of countries across all continents, contributing to ongoing tensions and undermining trust in international non-proliferation agreements.
In 2022, heightened tensions between Russia and NATO over the war in Ukraine led several non-nuclear European states, including Sweden and Finland, to reconsider their security arrangements, citing increased vulnerability to nuclear threats.

Claim

Even a nuclear exchange detonating a megaton (1 million tonnes of TNT is the equivalent) would cause a global winter so that the southern hemisphere as much as the north would be affected in this regard. In addition, many military targets are located in countries which have no nuclear, and in some cases very little conventional, defences. For these reasons, and the disruption of all trade movements, all nations have a vital stake in maintaining peace.

Counter-claim

The so-called "insecurity and vulnerability" of non-nuclear weapon states is vastly overstated and not a significant problem. Global security is maintained through diplomatic alliances, international treaties, and economic interdependence—not just nuclear arsenals. Most non-nuclear states thrive without nuclear weapons, focusing on development and peace. Obsessing over their vulnerability distracts from real issues like poverty, climate change, and human rights. The world’s stability does not hinge on every nation possessing nuclear arms.