Envisioning future energy scenarios

Revolutionizing energy usage
Anticipating future energy demand

Description

Envisioning future energy scenarios involves systematically analyzing potential developments in energy supply, demand, and technology to inform decision-making and policy. This strategy enables stakeholders to anticipate challenges such as resource scarcity, environmental impacts, and technological shifts, and to identify resilient pathways for sustainable energy transitions. By modeling diverse futures, it supports the design of adaptive policies, investment priorities, and innovation strategies that address uncertainties and promote secure, affordable, and low-carbon energy systems.

Implementation

The study carried out in five European countries by the International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths (IPSES) demonstrated that by using a Least Cost Strategy it is possible to save about US$60,000-80,000 million per year (real base-year 1990) by the year 2020 in comparison to the business as usual projection made in a study by the EEC/EU. This least cost strategy would lead to approximately a 40% decline in primary energy demands and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by the year 2020.

In a study by Greenpeace ("Towards a Fossil Free Energy Future"), the Stockholm Institute investigated a strategy to phase out fossil fuels by the year 2100 and to phase out nuclear power by the year 2010. This was possible by a step by step reduction of CO2 emissions with 10% by the year 2000 (in comparison with the year 1988), 26% in 2010, 68% in 2030 and finally 100% in 2100. The Institute has judged the strategy to be feasible and potentially economically beneficial.

Twelve US states have enacted renewable electricity standards.