Anticipating crises

The international community should improve its capacity to identify and anticipate crises before they escalate to unmanageable proportions.

Leaders need the kind of warning that will induce them to act preventively, not simply warning that a bad situation is getting worse. Leaders tend to put off hard decisions as long as they can, and this has often resulted in delay or paralysis in dealing with developing crises. To prevent violent conflicts, leaders must overcome this initial policy paralysis.