Irreversible depletion of natural capital

Loss of non-renewable resources
Attrition of renewable resources faster than replacement rate

Nature

Within the next 50 years, the earth's population will probably pass 9 billion, and global economic output may quintuple. Largely as a result, renewable resources will become increasingly scarce. The total area of agricultural land will shrink, Many remaining virgin forests will be lost. Overuse and pollution of aquifers, rivers and other water supplies will continue. Thinning of the ozone layer will probably worsen. Such scarcities could spark violent civil or international conflict.

Incidence

The World Bank estimated in 2021 that low- and middle-income countries lose over $2 trillion annually due to the depletion of natural capital, including forests, minerals, and fisheries. According to the Global Footprint Network, humanity has been consuming resources at a rate exceeding Earth's regenerative capacity since the 1970s, with 2023’s "Earth Overshoot Day" falling on August 2, indicating accelerating depletion worldwide.
A notable example occurred in Indonesia, where between 1990 and 2015, Sumatra lost over 50% of its natural forest cover, primarily due to unsustainable logging and palm oil expansion, resulting in irreversible loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Claim

Our generation is supporting itself on a one-time depletion of natural capital.

Counter-claim

Irreversible depletion of natural capital is often overstated and sensationalized. Humanity has always adapted and innovated, finding alternatives and solutions to resource scarcity. The focus on natural capital distracts from pressing issues like poverty and technological advancement. We should prioritize economic growth and human development over environmental concerns that can be managed through innovation. Nature is resilient, and our ability to adapt will ensure that we thrive, regardless of resource depletion.