Instability in relations between allies of superpowers

Disputes among allies
Offending the sovereignty of allies

Nature

Given the widespread conviction that regardless of first strike, both superpowers would be destroyed, it is probable that the superpowers (the USSR and the USA) will not fight over disagreements between themselves, but will be dragged into war by disagreements between their allies.

Background

Some historians maintain that World War I was not brought about by deep hostility between Russia and Germany, but by the instability in relations among the lesser nations to which these powers were allied.

Incidence

Instability in relations between allies of superpowers has manifested across multiple regions, affecting security alliances, economic partnerships, and diplomatic coordination. Such instability can disrupt collective responses to global crises, undermine mutual defense commitments, and create openings for rival powers to exploit divisions. The phenomenon is evident in both longstanding alliances and newer coalitions, with shifting national interests and external pressures frequently testing the durability of these relationships.
A notable example occurred in 2021, when tensions between the United States and France escalated over the AUKUS security pact, which led to Australia cancelling a major submarine contract with France. This incident strained transatlantic trust and cooperation.

Claim

Instability in relations between allies of superpowers is a profoundly serious problem that threatens global security and undermines collective progress. When trusted partners falter, it creates dangerous power vacuums, emboldens adversaries, and erodes the foundations of international cooperation. Ignoring these fractures risks catastrophic misunderstandings and escalations. The world cannot afford complacency—addressing instability among allies is not just important, it is absolutely essential for maintaining peace and stability in an increasingly volatile world.

Counter-claim

Instability among allies of superpowers is vastly overstated as a problem. History shows that alliances naturally ebb and flow without causing global catastrophe. Superpowers possess the diplomatic tools and shared interests to manage disagreements. Minor rifts rarely escalate into significant threats, and the international system is resilient enough to absorb such fluctuations. Focusing on these minor instabilities distracts from truly pressing global issues that deserve our attention and resources.