Imbalance of conventional armed forces

Imbalance of conventional weapons
Imbalance of conventional arms

Nature

International conflict is avoided when two enemies have equal capacity to inflict damage. When one enemy acquires better equipment, better trained or more combatants or has some other clear advantage the situation can quickly degenerate into war.

Background

The imbalance of conventional armed forces emerged as a critical global concern during the Cold War, when stark disparities in military capabilities between blocs heightened fears of regional instability and arms races. Recognition of this problem intensified following high-profile conflicts and military interventions, prompting international efforts such as the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. Over time, shifting alliances and technological advances have further complicated assessments of military balance, sustaining its relevance in security discourse.

Incidence

Imbalance of conventional armed forces is a persistent issue affecting regional and global security, with significant disparities in military capabilities observed between neighboring states and within alliances. Such imbalances can fuel arms races, provoke insecurity, and undermine collective defense arrangements, as seen in various regions including Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Korean Peninsula. The scale of this problem is highlighted by ongoing increases in military expenditures and force modernization programs, which exacerbate existing asymmetries and complicate efforts at arms control.
A notable example occurred in 2022, when Russia’s overwhelming conventional military superiority over Ukraine contributed to the escalation and intensity of the conflict. The disparity in troop numbers, armored vehicles, and air power between the two countries was widely reported as a key factor shaping the course of the war and influencing international responses.

Claim

The imbalance of conventional armed forces is a grave and urgent problem that threatens global stability. When military power is concentrated in the hands of a few, it breeds insecurity, provokes arms races, and undermines international peace. Such disparities fuel regional tensions, embolden aggression, and leave weaker nations vulnerable to coercion or invasion. Addressing this imbalance is not just important—it is essential for a just, secure, and peaceful world order.

Counter-claim

As any military historian knows, fighting and winning a war is a nearly infinitely complex task. The motivation of troops, their training, the skills and integrity of the officers, the reliability of intelligence and how it is used, where battles are fought and in what weather even the time of day, logistics, propaganda and weapons all play important roles. To equate, weapons parity with military balance is naive.