Frozen conflicts

A frozen conflict is not static, but is an unresolved war that continues at a low level below the threshold of full-scale combat. This typically occurs when a comprehensive political agreement cannot be reached.

The fighting in eastern Ukraine from 2014 until Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 was considered frozen despite the deaths of some 14,000 military personnel and civilians and persistent cyber and information warfare. 

Examples of frozen conflicts in place with ongoing tensions in 2026: border spats between Thailand and Cambodia makes peace elusive; the decades-long frozen India-Pakistan conflict has led to an arms race (including the development of nuclear weapons on both sides), instability in South Asia and periodic flare-ups of violence.

From a historical perspective, the frozen conflict in the Koreas is also instructive. The war ended with an armistice in 1953 and no peace treaty, effectively leaving North and South Korea at war to this day. This led to the North developing an underground nuclear weapons program that continues to pose a threat to the world.