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The classic game, much favoured by confidence tricksters at fairs, consists of determining the location of a small object (a pea or a coin) which is moved rapidly beneath one of three cups in such a way as to create the (false) impression that it is obvious under which cup it is to be found. Also known in a card version as 'Find the Lady'.
Metaphor
The key to understanding many shifting social situations often creates the impression of being precisely located. Individuals and groups may well take extensive personal, financial or career risks based on their belief of where it is located. Yet the dynamics of the social systems repeatedly shift that key into an unexpected location.
[Features]The unpredictability of the alternation as contrasted with the impression of predictability of the location at any one time. The difficulty in 'pinning down' the location.
[Contrast]There is a widespread confidence amongst groups in their ability to specify where the key to any shifting situation lies at any one time. There is such confidence in this belief that groups may even express considerable hostility towards those who fail to agree with their perception.
[Keys]The skill of the shell game artist and how it is developed. The role of his accomplice in misleading the audience. Increasing the number of cups or the number of objects to be found.